Younger opinions to affect policy

Social opinion will eventually sow legislative change on the issue of same-sex marriage, according to a study published last year. The shift in public opinion is inevitable as younger, more liberal voters age into the voting pool.

The study, conducted by two Columbia University political science professors, found that as public opinion on same-sex marriage continues to shift, government policy will follow suit. Certainly, exposure to gay and lesbian public figures has widened in recent years. LGBT pop stars, athletes, actors and politicians, as well as characters on television shows, have become ubiquitous in the public arena as legal battles in the majority of states continue to be fought.

“One thing we’ve found is that most of the change we’ve seen over the last 12 to 14 years can be explained by cohort replacement: new voters entering the voting pool,” said Jeffrey Lax, one of the study’s authors. “If you look at where the age group of 30 to 45 [year olds] are now, it’s where the 18 to 29 were that many years back. We’re not seeing that much aggregate change, but clear signs of voter replacement: new, younger supporters entering the voting pool.”

photo by Dave Schumaker

A recent Chicago Tribune poll of area residents found that the number of people who support legalizing same-sex marriage was on par with those who did not: 42 percent of were in favor and the same percentage were opposed, while 15 percent were undecided.

Same-sex civil unions, which are not recognized in Illinois, were supported by 54 percent of residents polled.

Data from a CNN poll conducted this month yields a conservative estimate of 48 percent of Illinois residents support same-sex marriage, compared with 26 percent in 1996.

That number may actually skew higher, in the 53 percent range when adjusted for 2010 percentages, said Lax.

Research data indicates that the younger the voter, the more liberal the viewpoint on same-sex marriage. Illinois voters under the age of 30 were overwhelmingly supportive of legalizing same-sex marriage by some 60 percent.

“With trends like that, I just do not imagine that newer cohorts to the voting pool are more conservative,” Lax said.

The study indicated that while there is nuance based on topic (adoption by same-sex couples compared with legalizing same-sex marriage, for example), “Indeed, we find a deeper form of responsiveness, to policy-specific opinion and not only ideology. Policy is responsive to opinion… Furthermore, policy-specific opinion generally has the largest substantive impact on policy.”